Journal on Baltic Security

Russia’s persistent aggression towards its neighbours has long been predicted. However, the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine proved to be a startling development. Even if Ukraine does not belong to NATO or the EU, the Kremlin, either through miscalculation or deliberate intent, ventured into unchartered territory. Similarly, Russia may decide to test NATO’s cohesion. This shift has significantly altered the security landscape for the Baltic states. This article investigates Estonian ideas, plans, and actions aimed at mitigating the escalating risks. In the realm of collective defence, an anticipated transition from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial is underway. This transition coincides with a disillusionment with the European common defence policy. While the EU is envisioned to play a pivotal role in non-military domains, Estonia places its exclusive trust in NATO for military defence. Nonetheless, this collective defence approach is not without challenges. Most importantly, deterrence by denial may not be immediately applicable. Consequently, in terms of individual defence, it appears that alongside integrated defence, a total defence strategy is imperative.

The paper analyses implications and challenges of Germany’s upcoming military deployment in Lithuania. A permanent stationing of brigade-sized military unit on NATO’s Eastern frontier represents a major change in its force posture and a significant shift in Germany’s defence policy. Despite the official German position that the implementation of its military commitments is contingent on Lithuania’s timely improvement of its host nation support infrastructure, the paper suggests that the speed, quantity, and structure of Germany’s deployment also depends on the progress made in rearming the Bundeswehr and its defence policy priorities.

Latvia has consistently supported Ukraine since Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Importantly, Latvia took considerable risks and provided military support to Ukraine even before Russia invaded despite the strong possibility that Russia might win quickly. These concerns subsided when it became clear that Russia’s plan to take Kyiv and achieve decisive victory against Ukraine failed. In retrospect, Latvia’s support for Ukraine was both morally right and politically prudent. This article, however, looks at the potential long-term implications of Latvia’s foreign and domestic policy responses to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The article looks at such key foreign policy aims as support for economic sanctions against Russia, holding Russia responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, and ensuring stronger NATO military presence in Latvia. On the domestic front, the article examines the potential consequences of removal of Soviet-era monuments in Latvia, limiting access to Russian media, and reducing the role of the Russian language in public communication. The article concludes that although these foreign and domestic policy measures are entirely appropriate, they may still backfire in the long run if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine and if domestic responses to the war further alienate Latvia’s Russian-speakers.

Abstract: This article delves into an examination of video game streaming and its impact on shaping perceptions of the Russo-Ukrainian War as an influence operation. Specifically, it investigates the case of a 16-year-old boy known as GrishaPutin who streamed a multiplayer game of Hearts of Iron IV from the ChVK Wagner Centre. Drawing upon the framework of popular geopolitics and considering the narrative, ludic, and representational dimensions of these streams, this article situates the event within the broader social context in which the influence operation unfolds. Ultimately, this paper concludes that this event represents a novel and yet to be fully established practice in the realm of influence operations. It highlights how such information operations can evolve and adapt, with non-state actors occasionally driving innovation in ways that may not have been anticipated or planned by established state entities.

Maritime traffic from the Baltic Sea and Black Sea to the Strait of Hormuz has experienced frequent and prolonged instances of radiofrequency interference which has been attributed to military exercises, anti-drone defence, and political motives. Whilst the technical vulnerabilities to maritime systems have been identified, academia has yet to contextualise those vulnerabilities when considering ongoing geopolitical tensions notably between Russia, Iran, and ‘the West’. The findings of this research indicate that spoofing vessels can complement five main strategies: (1) making navies appear more provocative than they are; (2) revealing security vulnerabilities; (3) hostage diplomacy; (4) evading sanctions; and (5) reconnaissance and sabotage. It concludes with a discussion of future scenarios and provides suggestions for countermeasures.

This article argues that both Russia and China will re-invigorate and expand their international espionage activities. Russia’s renewed vigour in engaging in aggressive espionage campaigns is due to the current setbacks that it is facing as a result of its ill-fated invasion of Ukraine. The sanction-induced prohibitions that limit access to state-of-the-art technologies will unleash renewed enthusiasm to obtain these latest technologies by covert means, be it HUMINT and/or cyberespionage. The future robustness of China’s aggressive espionage activities is projected to be fuelled by its systematic ‘de-coupling’ from those nations leading in science, engineering and technology, such as the United States, as well as the growing opposition to the use of developmental institutions such as the Confucius Institute and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as intelligence collection platforms. This article predicts that as Russia and China become ‘outsiders’, they will becoming increasingly aggressive in their espionage campaigns as pragmatic states acting in survival and developmental mindsets, and it elaborates on some of the more relevant forms of espionage employed.

This article addresses the hybrid challenges to the maritime security of the European Union. While hybrid threat issues are generally extensively reported in scientific literature, the authors point out that their integration with EU maritime safety issues represents a novel study strategy. The article contends that the maritime space is crucial for the prosperity and safety of EU Member States. The authors suggest potential applications for using the maritime environment as a site for hybrid impacts. The results of the conducted research are essential in determining the directions in which EU security and safety policy and those of the various Member States will develop. Attention to the possibility of using maritime spaces for hybrid warfare is a necessary condition for an effective response. Proper threat identification requires monitoring and cooperation of many actors.

While concepts like risk and crisis management have grown ubiquitous at all levels of government, they have also cemented their place in academia as interdisciplinary fields of study in higher education. In the Baltic Sea Region (BSR), these types of educational programmes are typically labelled under the umbrella term ‘societal security’ in English. This article provides a succinct depiction of the state of the art of societal security in higher education in this region. After a brief introduction of the concept, the article comprehensively analyses second level degree programmes (master’s equivalent) in this field. Particularly, four conceptual and thematic areas appear to constitute the core of societal security degree programmes, though in different combinations and under a variety of labels, those being risk, crisis management, safety management, and resilience. We note, however, that these concepts and their respective research objectives exhibit extensive overlaps. This paradigm reflects how the field of societal security has emerged and evolved through a combination of different disciplinary and interdisciplinary traditions that closely follow changing policy needs. It is concluded, conceptual difficulties notwithstanding, that a common, or at least a more shared, understanding of what constitutes societal security in the BSR has emerged and continues to develop, particularly in its so-called functional understanding. This situation allows for truly transnational learning, and in so doing, also enhances cross-border cooperation in educating and training the next generation of risk and crisis managers in the BSR and beyond.

The use of various practical pedagogical tools is an important part of officer training. This is also an area where there is a long tradition in the training of officer cadets and officers in staff colleges as well as in the Armed Forces more generally. This article focuses on staff rides aimed at teaching tactics and operational arts based on historical examples. This type of staff-rides aims to learn from history with a bearing on the present and the future.