Journal on Baltic Security logo


  • Help
Login Register

  1. Home
  2. Issues
  3. Volume 10, Issue 2 (2024)
  4. Evaluating Forward Allied Presence: A Re ...

Journal on Baltic Security

Submit your article Information Become a Peer-reviewer
  • Article info
  • Full article
  • Related articles
  • More
    Article info Full article Related articles

Evaluating Forward Allied Presence: A Revised Strategy on Russia from Deterrence to Containment
Volume 10, Issue 2 (2024), pp. 53–78
Laura Gūtmane  

Authors

 
Placeholder
https://doi.org/10.57767/jobs_2024_011
Pub. online: 31 December 2024      Type: Research Article      Open accessOpen Access

Received
10 October 2024
Accepted
6 December 2024
Published
31 December 2024

Abstract

Owing to the worsening security environment and the uncertainty of the security guarantees provided by the U.S., Europe needs to revise its strategy towards Russia going forward. To provide recommendations for a new strategy, this article in the first part considers Russian understanding of deterrence, analysing the conceptual differences with the Western though and emphasizing why it matters. The second part of the article looks at the Cold War past and considers the policy of containment as the conceptual basis for a new and revised strategy towards Russia. Conclusion includes recommendation for the policy makers on elements that the new strategy should include.

References

Notes

Respectively the United Kingdom in Estonia, Canada in Latvia, Germany in Lithuania and the US in Poland
Monaghan, Sean. Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice. Hybrid CoE Paper 12, March 2022. (Figure 6, p. 12)
 
Adamsky, Dmitry. (2023) The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War. Stanford University Press. Kindle Edition.
 
Dolan, Chris. (2022) NATO Must Boost Hybrid Warfare Defenses. Reiss Center on Law and Security, New York University School of Law.
 
Drew, S. Nelson, Nitze, Paul. (1994) NSC-68: Forging the Strategy of Containment. Washington, DC:National Defense University. Available at: https://onlinebooks.library.upenn.edu/webbin/book/lookupid?key=olbp22175. Last accessed: 5 November 2024.
 
Galeotti, Mark. (2019) Active Measures: Russia’s Covert Geopolitical Operations. The George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies no. 31, Marshall Center Security Insight.
 
Halas, Matus. (2019) 'Proving a negative: why deterrence does not work in the Baltics', European Security, Vol. 28 (4), pp. 431–448.
 
Jervis, Robert. (1982) 'Deterrence and Perception', International Security, 7(3), pp. 3–30.
 
Karaganov, Sergei, Suslov, Dmitry. (2018) A new world order: A view from Russia. Foreign Policy Research Foundation, Russia in Global Affairs.
 
Lanoszka, Alexander, Sirotova, Jacqueline, Zaborowski, Marcin. (2023) Will the Eastern Flank be Battle Ready? GLOBSEC.
 
Monaghan, Sean. (2022) Deterring hybrid threats: Towards a fifth wave of deterrence theory and practice. Hybrid Centre of Excellence.
 
National Security Council. (April 14, 1950) NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security. Available at: https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/nsc-hst/nsc-68.htm. Last accessed: 28 April 2024.
 
NATO Strategic Concept. (2022) NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_210907.htm. Last accessed: 5 November 2024.
 
NATO. (2024) Washington Summit Declaration NATO. [Online]. 2024. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm . Last accessed: 5 November 2024.
 
NATO. (1952) Report by the Standing Group on Strategic Guidance. NATO webpage. [Online] n.d. Available at: https://www.nato.int/docu/stratdoc/eng/a521209a.pdf . Last accessed: 5 November 2024.
 
NATO. (2014) NATO's Wales Summit Declaration. NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm" . Last accessed: 28 April 2024.
 
NATO. (2022) Strategic Concepts. NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_56626.htm . Last accessed: 5 November 2024.
 
NATO. (2023) Collective defence and Article 5. NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/ie/natohq/topics_110496.htm. Last accessed: 28 December 2024.
 
NATO. (2023) Deterrence and defence. NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_133127.htm . Last accessed: 28 April 2024.
 
NATO. (2023) NATO’s military presence in the East of the Alliance. NATO webpage. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm . Last accessed: 28 April 2024.
 
Pezard, Stephanie, Rhoades, Ashley L. (2020) What Provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring Without Unintended Escalation. RAND, 2020.
 
Quackenbush, Stephan. (2010) 'Deterrence theory: where do we stand?', Review of International Studies, Vol. 37, pp. 741-762.
 
Reiter, Dan, Poast, Paul. (2021) 'The Truth About Tripwires: Why Small Force Deployments Do Not Deter Aggression', Texas National Security Review, Vol. 4(3).
 
Sagan, Scott D. (1991) 'Review: History, Analogy, and Deterrence Theory', The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol. 22 (1), pp. 79-88.
 
Stoicescu, Kalev and Järvenpää, Paul. (2019) 'Contemporary Deterrence: Insights and Lessons from Enhanced Forward Presence', International Centre for Defence and Security.
 
Ven Bruusgaard, Kristin. (2016) 'Russian Strategic Deterrence', Survival, Vol. 58 (4), pp. 7–26.
 
Vihmand-Veebel, Liia, Veebel, Viljar. (2023) 'The Linguistic Factor in the Deterrence Conversation between Russia and the West: If and How Russians Understand the Meaning of “Deterrence?"'. The Canadian Journal of European and Russian Studies, Vol. 16 (2), pp. 30-47.

Full article Related articles PDF XML
Full article Related articles PDF XML

Copyright
Open Access. ©
by logo by logo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Forward Allied Presence deterrence containment

Metrics
since May 2021
234

Article info
views

19

Full article
views

133

PDF
downloads

23

XML
downloads

Export citation

Copy and paste formatted citation
Placeholder

Download citation in file


Share


RSS

Journal on Baltic Security

  • Online ISSN: 2382-9230
  • Print ISSN: 2382-9222
  • Copyright © 2021 Baltic Defence College

About

  • About journal

For contributors

  • Submit
  • OA Policy
  • Become a Peer-reviewer

Contact us

  • Baltic Defence College,
    Riia 12, 51010,
    Tartu, Estonia
Powered by PubliMill  •  Privacy policy