Journal on Baltic Security

The Russo-Ukrainian war, that was forecasted by some experts to last merely a few days, is already into its 5th year. Mounting evidence conveys that Russia started the invasion of Ukraine by ignoring all of the concepts it had been advocating and implementing since the beginning of its military reform in 2008. The war has demonstrated several essential changes in the battlefield operations, war-waging practices, recruitment of troops, and force structures.

Latvia has consistently supported Ukraine since Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Importantly, Latvia took considerable risks and provided military support to Ukraine even before Russia invaded despite the strong possibility that Russia might win quickly. These concerns subsided when it became clear that Russia’s plan to take Kyiv and achieve decisive victory against Ukraine failed. In retrospect, Latvia’s support for Ukraine was both morally right and politically prudent. This article, however, looks at the potential long-term implications of Latvia’s foreign and domestic policy responses to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The article looks at such key foreign policy aims as support for economic sanctions against Russia, holding Russia responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, and ensuring stronger NATO military presence in Latvia. On the domestic front, the article examines the potential consequences of removal of Soviet-era monuments in Latvia, limiting access to Russian media, and reducing the role of the Russian language in public communication. The article concludes that although these foreign and domestic policy measures are entirely appropriate, they may still backfire in the long run if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine and if domestic responses to the war further alienate Latvia’s Russian-speakers.