Journal on Baltic Security

Russian paramilitary operations, activities, and investments are on full display in sub-Saharan Africa, principally through the Wagner Group and its post-2023 successor Africa Corps. Pursuant to Russian grand strategy, the employment of such private military companies exploits natural resources, fuels ongoing conflicts, and promotes authoritarian regimes. Simultaneously, it seeks advantages for access, basing, and overflight while destabilising nations such as Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan. The Kremlin’s decisions, post Prigozhin-led mutiny, resulted in a paradigm shift of these organisations within sub-Saharan Africa creating various opportunities for the U.S. and their allies to erode Russia’s influence and reinforce a rules–based international order. This study may be of interest to the Baltic nations and Finland as NATO’s first line of defence against Russian advancement as well as the Caucasus and Moldova as potential targets of further Russian expansionism.

This article analyses Estonia’s strategic response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, emphasising the revival of the total defence concept. The authors argue that it is a shift in Estonia’s deterrence posture – from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial that has been pushing this revival. Since the 2010s, Estonia transitioned away from a total defence posture towards a comprehensive defence strategy. This deterrence shift results in bringing back total defence. However, it merges the two defence concepts. Reemerging total defence efforts can be seen in the expansion of Estonia’s conventional defence capabilities, increased military spending, and investments in long-range precision weapons. This conventional focus has brought along a strong push in matters concerning resilience, such as societal preparedness at large and public education. These latter elements are shared among notions of both comprehensive and total defence.